Outlook

Reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 is the goal of the European Union and of France. Several paths exist, and comparing them is one of the great debates of the decade.

Net zero does not mean zero emissions, but a balance: residual emissions (agriculture, heavy industry) are offset by sinks: forests, soils, capture. The EU has written it into law (the 2021 climate law), with a milestone of −55% emissions by 2030 (the "Fit for 55" package).

RTE published six scenarios, from M0 (100% renewables, nuclear phase-out) to N03 (about 50% nuclear / 50% renewables). A structuring conclusion: scenario N03 has the lowest system cost (~€91.5/MWh versus ~€120/MWh for 100% renewables) and a much smaller need for grid expansion. Reaching net zero without new nuclear is possible, but more expensive and riskier.

Announced in Belfort (February 2022), it plans 6 firm EPR2 reactors and 8 optional ones. The estimate for the first 6 reaches €72.8 billion, with a first commissioning at Penly targeted around 2038. It is a very long-term industrial and financial bet.

Two visions clash. Sufficiency (reducing demand for energy and materials), championed by Jancovici, the négaWatt scenario or ADEME's work. Green growth (decarbonising without reducing consumption, through innovation). Most pathways combine the two: efficiency, sufficiency and low-carbon electricity.

The challenge is no longer knowing what to do, but going fast enough: industrialising, training, financing, winning acceptance. The global trajectory is still insufficient for 1.5 °C, but the collapse in the cost of renewables has made credible what seemed impossible ten years ago.